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Task 2 (Open)

How the field flew this task, and which behaviours separated it.

ELLIOTLIGHTHDWYERSCUDGCORRY
The optimised route. Pilots fly it in the direction of the arrows. The radii, the leg distances and the start times are on the task page.

Analysis computed

Pilots
34
Airtime
41h (13:14–18:15 AEDT)
Thermals
7219 shared by 2+ pilots
Working band
7761866 m
Airtime split
  • 32%climbing
  • 23%gliding
  • 45%searching

1 pilot is in the standings but not in this analysis. Which, and why

What the weather did

From the weather model

Independent of the tracklogs: modelled conditions for the task area.

Fetching the day’s weather — it will appear here in a moment.

From the pilots' tracks

What the field actually flew — wind, climb strength and leg timing measured from every pilot's tracklog.

The day’s wind, hour by hour and leg by leg. What the air did, read from the field itself. We estimate the wind from the circling of every pilot. The first method is the drift of the circle centre, and the second method, used when the first is not available, is the modulation of the ground speed. We then average the vectors two ways. The table by hour of day shows how the wind increased and changed direction through the day. The table by speed-section leg shows the wind on each part of the course. This metric describes the day, so it has no value for each pilot.

How strong the day’s climbs were, hour by hour. When the day started, reached its peak, and ended. We group the thermal climbs of all pilots by the hour in which each climb started, labelled in the time zone of the competition. The median and the 90th-percentile average climb rate for each hour show how the lift developed. This metric describes the day, so it has no value for each pilot.

Share of the flight spent in air that wasn’t sinking. How much of the flight was in air worth being in. The value is the share of the airborne time of a pilot, on the shared grid, with a 30 s-smoothed vario at or above −0.5 m/s. The time they flew, the line they steered and the way the flight ended all feed this value. It is therefore a reading of the day as much as of the pilot. There is no expected direction, and the sign of the correlation is the finding. The timing table compares the window of the day’s best climbs against the time when the field launched.

All charts — measured and modelled alike — share that one time axis, so a vertical scan compares the two at the same moment. Arrows fly WITH the wind — direction figures are degrees the wind blows from; arrow length and opacity track speed and sample count. On the per-leg chart the pale bar is when the field flew that leg and the solid band inside it is the circling its wind was measured from — a leg the field glided is measured in a sliver of the time it was flown. Exact numbers are in the day family’s tables under “The metrics in detail”.

The day's thermals

The 40 most-shared of 45 multi-pilot thermals, reconstructed by pooling every pilot's track through the same climb. Everything shown is measured from the tracks — no fitted lift model.

StartPilotsHeight bandMean climbStrongest sideDetail
28001600 m+1.3 m/sSE
68001800 m+1.6 m/sW
37001600 m+1.6 m/sNE
415002000 m+0.9 m/sSW
108001800 m+1.4 m/sE
88002100 m+1.0 m/sE
47002000 m+0.9 m/sSW
212001800 m+1.2 m/sE
79001600 m+1.2 m/sW
710002000 m+1.3 m/sN
58001800 m+1.4 m/sS
413002100 m+1.2 m/sN
516002000 m+0.8 m/sNW
414001800 m+1.1 m/sSW
49001600 m+0.9 m/sE
213001800 m+1.4 m/sN
310001700 m+1.1 m/sE
511001900 m+1.0 m/sS
411001500 m+0.9 m/sS
315002000 m+1.0 m/sW
46001000 m+1.0 m/sNW
57001800 m+1.7 m/sSW
49001500 m+1.5 m/sSE
410001600 m+1.4 m/sSW
215001900 m+1.2 m/sN
210001700 m+1.5 m/sSE
411002100 m+1.8 m/sSE
213001700 m+1.1 m/sSE
311002100 m+1.6 m/sSW
316002300 m+1.5 m/sS
216002100 m+1.1 m/sW
28001300 m+1.0 m/sSW
39001900 m+1.3 m/sW
29002000 m+1.9 m/sE
46001100 m+1.0 m/sSE
38001700 m+0.7 m/sNE
38001700 m+1.4 m/sS
49001300 m+1.0 m/sNE
310001500 m+1.0 m/sSE
38001300 m+1.0 m/sNW

Thermal at 13:53 AEDT 10 pilots, 22 climbs

  • Wind 10.1 km/h from 237° (WSW), measured from 125 circle estimates in the pilots' own tracks.
  • Model wind cross-check loading…
  • Leans 18° from vertical toward 67° (ENE), within 10° of downwind.
  • Strongest on the E side of the core at +1.8 m/s against +1.4 m/s on the W side.
  • Multiple cores in 3 of 10 bands between 1300 and 1800 m — separate feeders (⬧ in the rose) before they merged.
Watch this thermal in the 3D replay (opens in a new tab)
Pilots in this thermal (climb rates)
PilotMinMedianMax
Michael Smith+0.3 m/s+1.8 m/s+4.0 m/s
Richard Martin-0.7 m/s+1.3 m/s+5.5 m/s
Jason Kath-1.0 m/s+1.3 m/s+3.8 m/s
Pete Bolton-4.0 m/s+1.0 m/s+3.0 m/s
James Atkinson-3.5 m/s+0.8 m/s+10.0 m/s
Ward Gunn-0.3 m/s+0.5 m/s+2.0 m/s
Steve Docherty
Jon Durand
James Wynd
Jason Lannstrom

Each pilot's slowest, typical and best climb over their own vario samples in this thermal — a negative minimum means they touched sink inside it.

Band table (exact numbers)
BandCore offset E/N (m)Working radiusExtentMean climbBest climbSamplesPilotsCores
17001800 m234 / 99122 m185 m+1.0 m/s+3.0 m/s9322
16001700 m127 / 109154 m260 m+1.2 m/s+3.8 m/s11521
15001600 m70 / 82132 m216 m+1.4 m/s+3.0 m/s13021
14001500 m1 / 54136 m187 m+2.0 m/s+5.5 m/s9222
13001400 m-44 / 98136 m177 m+1.9 m/s+4.0 m/s10922
12001300 m-63 / 98112 m160 m+1.7 m/s+3.5 m/s11321
11001200 m-9 / 139111 m204 m+1.5 m/s+3.5 m/s13731
10001100 m-45 / 20183 m133 m+1.2 m/s+3.5 m/s20231
9001000 m-50 / -66373 m555 m+1.1 m/s+6.0 m/s13441
800900 m-132 / -399441 m680 m+1.7 m/s+10.0 m/s4421

How to read this: each thermal pools every pilot's fixes through the same climb into 100 m altitude bands; a band's core is the lift-weighted centre of its fixes, so the rose and the sector readings are already normalised for the thermal's lean and drift. Wedge length is relative climb by side of the core; the dashed ring is the measured working radius and the dotted ring the widest the field ranged. The solid arrow is the wind measured from the pilots' circles; the dashed arrow is the weather model's wind for the same place, time and altitudes — a model run, not an observation.

Which behaviours went with better results

Every row is one behaviour, measured for each pilot and then compared against the published placings (Spearman's rank correlation, ρ). Rank 1 is best, so a behaviour where more is better shows a negative ρ. A bigger bar means the behaviour tracked the placings more closely on this task, and pilots measured is how much of the analysed field the behaviour applied to — a reading drawn from half the field is thinner than one drawn from all of it. Select a row to see that behaviour plotted against rank — the chart stays in view while you work down the table.

How much of the thermal the pilot climbed before leaving it

Each dot is a pilot. ρ = -0.66 (clear pattern, n = 24). No expected direction — the sign is the finding: larger values went with better ranks here. The curve is a trend fitted through the dots: left to right it runs from about rank 27 to about rank 6. 10 pilots have no value and are not plotted.
BehaviourStrengthWhat it meansPilots measured
How much of the thermal the pilot climbed before leaving it
clear pattern
Share of the height gain made outside thermals
clear pattern
Share of lift turned in that was kept as a climb
clear pattern
Final glide committed to when leaving the last climb
could be chance
Glide speed between climbs
clear pattern
Climbing faster than the pilots sharing the thermal
clear pattern
Low saves dug out from the bottom of the band
some pattern
Gliding wide of the optimal course line
could be chance
Arriving at ESS with height to spare
too few pilots
Glide L/D against the field median
could be chance
Time to core thermals
could be chance
Share of race time spent hunting for the next climb
could be chance
How low the pilot gets between climbs
could be chance
Share of the flight spent in air that wasn’t sinking
could be chance
Climbs joined on another pilot's marker
could be chance
How round and consistent the circles were
could be chance
Gliding faster when the next climb is stronger
could be chance
Climb rate at thermal exit
could be chance
Time spent flying with a gaggle
could be chance
Distance covered between climbs
too few pilots

clear pattern is |ρ| ≥ 0.5, some pattern ≥ 0.3 and faint pattern below — each only once the coefficient is bigger than chance alone produces at that many pilots (its noise floor). could be chance (in the statistics: within noise) means shuffling the placings produces a coefficient that size more than 5% of the time, so it cannot be told apart from luck however big it looks. too few pilots is fewer than 8 pilots with a value — not enough to tell either way.

Rank 20 behaviours against one day's results and a few will look strong on luck alone — the ones worth believing are those that repeat across tasks in the competition-level analysis.

2 behaviours were measured on fewer than 8 pilots — too few to tell either way, so read those rows as a hint at most.

Outcome checks

These are not behaviours. They measure the result itself, for example the time behind the leader and the race time lost, so they always follow the places. They are here as a check on the analysis. A weak pattern in this table means that something is wrong in the numbers, and not in the flying of any pilot. Their per-pilot tables stay in the Race craft section below.

OutcomeStrengthWhat it meansPilots measured
Race time behind the leader at ESS
too few pilots
Race time lost against the fastest pilots, leg by leg
could be chance

The whole field at a glance

1. Hughbert Alexander
2. Steven Crosby
3. Jon Durand
4. Michael Smith
5. Jason Kath
6. Troy Horton
7. James Wynd
8. Steve Docherty
9. Paul Bissett-Amess
10. Neale Halsall
11. Todd Wisewould
12. Peter Burkitt
13. Mitch Butler
14. Dustan Hansen
15. Donny Gardner
16. Mick Lamb
17. Richard Martin
18. Neil Hooke
19. Jay Kubeil
20. Peter Adriaans
21. Scotty Ireland
22. Hossain Tefaili
23. Paul Lawrence
24. Jason Carman
25. John Harriott
26. Jason Lannstrom
27. Adrian Connor
28. James Atkinson
29. Bruce Atkinson
30. Pete Bolton
31. Marcus De Vecchi
32. Ward Gunn
33. Keith Lavers
34. Tushar Pokle
The pilots in rank order against every behaviour. A darker cell is a better percentile in this field, and an empty cell is a behaviour that does not apply. The columns start with the behaviours whose better end went with better places, continue through the behaviours that separated nobody, and end with the behaviours that ran the other way. A field that one behaviour separated therefore shades dark in the top-left corner, and a field where each pilot won differently does not. The band above rates how much pattern each group of columns holds: a clear, some or faint pattern, noise (could be chance), or too few pilots to tell. The family sections below carry the exact values. † This behaviour has no good or bad direction. The shade is the position in the field, and not the quality.

Pilot style clusters

The groups are flying style, and not score. The spread of ranks in each group shows where that style paid and where it did not. Each group carries the name of its strongest signature. A ★ marks the pilot most typical of their group.

Group AStrong climbers

10 pilots · ranks 121 · median 5.5 · middle half 3.39.5

  • HighClimbing faster than the pilots sharing the thermal group median P82 in this field (76 percent) · usually a strength
  • HighShare of lift turned in that was kept as a climb group median P80 in this field (75 percent)
  • HighGlide speed between climbs group median P78 in this field (56.6 kilometres per hour) · usually a strength
  • LowFinal glide committed to when leaving the last climb group median P25 in this field (8.36 ratio)
  • 1. Hughbert Alexander
  • 2. Steven Crosby
  • 3. Jon Durand
  • 4. Michael Smith
  • 5. Jason Kath
  • 6. Troy Horton
  • 8. Steve Docherty
  • 10. Neale Halsall (most typical of this group)
  • 16. Mick Lamb
  • 21. Scotty Ireland

Group BGaggle flyers

12 pilots · ranks 724 · median 14.5 · middle half 11.818.5

  • HighTime spent flying with a gaggle group median P81 in this field (62 percent)
  • HighShare of race time spent hunting for the next climb group median P78 in this field (54 percent) · usually costly
  • HighShare of the height gain made outside thermals group median P74 in this field (39 percent)
  • HighShare of the flight spent in air that wasn’t sinking group median P70 in this field (63 percent)
  • 7. James Wynd
  • 9. Paul Bissett-Amess
  • 11. Todd Wisewould
  • 12. Peter Burkitt
  • 13. Mitch Butler
  • 14. Dustan Hansen
  • 15. Donny Gardner
  • 17. Richard Martin
  • 18. Neil Hooke
  • 20. Peter Adriaans (most typical of this group)
  • 22. Hossain Tefaili
  • 24. Jason Carman

Not clustered: 19. Jay Kubeil — only 11 of 20 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 23. Paul Lawrence — only 8 of 20 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 25. John Harriott — only 8 of 20 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 26. Jason Lannstrom — only 11 of 20 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 27. Adrian Connor — only 8 of 20 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 28. James Atkinson — only 3 of 20 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 29. Bruce Atkinson — only 1 of 20 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 30. Pete Bolton — only 8 of 20 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 31. Marcus De Vecchi — only 10 of 20 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 32. Ward Gunn — only 8 of 20 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 33. Keith Lavers — only 2 of 20 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 34. Tushar Pokle — only 1 of 20 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%).

GlideComp groups the pilots by flying style, and not by score. It transforms the rank of every behavioural metric to a percentile inside the field. It then compares two pilots by the mean percentile gap over the metrics that both pilots have, and never fills in a missing value. Ward-linkage agglomeration forms the groups, and the best mean silhouette selects the number of groups. Each group carries the spread of the GAP ranks of its members, which shows where a style paid and where it did not. On this task, 22 pilots on 20 behavioural metrics formed 2 groups, with k searched from 2 to 6. The mean silhouette is 0.21. A value near 0 means soft group boundaries, and a value near 1 means tight, well-separated groups.

The metrics in detail

best: could be chance (0.18)

best: clear pattern (0.66)

One lane per behaviour, one dot per pilot, placed by percentile within the pilots that behaviour could be measured on — so a dot's position says where a pilot sat, never how spread the field was. Hover a pilot to light them up in every lane at once. Lanes run strongest separator first, the ones that separated nobody last; the table below keeps its usual order. Right is the end the behaviour is expected to be better at — whether it paid on this task is the ranking's question, not this chart's. † No good or bad direction: right is simply the larger value. A lane's count is the pilots it applied to; the rest have no value for it, which is not a score of zero.
#PilotOut-climbCore sLeaveRateKept%TopOut%Round
1Hughbert Alexander76 (34 shared climbs)35 (12 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (7 climbs ≥ 90 s)100 (11/11 circling bouts led to climbs)59 (mean on-course altitude 57% of band)0.16 (148 circles, 80% left)
2Steven Crosby87 (8 shared climbs)34 (17 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.2 (7 climbs ≥ 90 s)80 (12/15 circling bouts led to climbs)67 (mean on-course altitude 54% of band)0.16 (171 circles, 85% left)
3Jon Durand66 (26 shared climbs)45 (17 climbs ≥ 60 s)0.6 (13 climbs ≥ 90 s)75 (9/12 circling bouts led to climbs)35 (mean on-course altitude 31% of band)0.21 (68 circles, 32% left)
4Michael Smith82 (15 shared climbs)79 (12 climbs ≥ 60 s)0.9 (10 climbs ≥ 90 s)67 (8/12 circling bouts led to climbs)62 (mean on-course altitude 51% of band)0.13 (224 circles, 71% left)
5Jason Kath74 (27 shared climbs)52 (12 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.0 (11 climbs ≥ 90 s)80 (12/15 circling bouts led to climbs)64 (mean on-course altitude 53% of band)0.13 (203 circles, 75% left)
6Troy Horton81 (7 shared climbs)51 (12 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.1 (6 climbs ≥ 90 s)64 (9/14 circling bouts led to climbs)49 (mean on-course altitude 31% of band)0.15 (148 circles, 99% left)
7James Wynd47 (16 shared climbs)55 (11 climbs ≥ 60 s)0.5 (7 climbs ≥ 90 s)43 (3/7 circling bouts led to climbs)0 (mean on-course altitude 19% of band)0.27 (19 circles, 32% left)
8Steve Docherty75 (9 shared climbs)42 (7 climbs ≥ 60 s)0.6 (5 climbs ≥ 90 s)75 (3/4 circling bouts led to climbs)77 (mean on-course altitude 45% of band)0.26 (20 circles, 85% left)
9Paul Bissett-Amess56 (18 shared climbs)41 (9 climbs ≥ 60 s)0.9 (7 climbs ≥ 90 s)50 (3/6 circling bouts led to climbs)64 (mean on-course altitude 43% of band)0.15 (67 circles, 97% left)
10Neale Halsall82 (17 shared climbs)54 (6 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (5 climbs ≥ 90 s)33 (2/6 circling bouts led to climbs)73 (mean on-course altitude 47% of band)0.15 (104 circles, 48% left)
11Todd Wisewould72 (14 shared climbs)33 (6 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (4 climbs ≥ 90 s)44 (4/9 circling bouts led to climbs)68 (mean on-course altitude 51% of band)0.14 (65 circles, 77% left)
12Peter Burkitt62 (20 shared climbs)10 (5 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.5 (1 climb ≥ 90 s)43 (3/7 circling bouts led to climbs)29 (mean on-course altitude 21% of band)0.16 (70 circles, 67% left)
13Mitch Butler57 (17 shared climbs)50 (2/4 circling bouts led to climbs)46 (mean on-course altitude 24% of band)0.14 (67 circles, 57% left)
14Dustan Hansen71 (43 shared climbs)26 (9 climbs ≥ 60 s)0.9 (5 climbs ≥ 90 s)50 (3/6 circling bouts led to climbs)30 (mean on-course altitude 28% of band)0.18 (159 circles, 56% left)
15Donny Gardner50 (10 shared climbs)60 (11 climbs ≥ 60 s)0.4 (8 climbs ≥ 90 s)56 (5/9 circling bouts led to climbs)38 (mean on-course altitude 32% of band)0.19 (15 circles, 53% left)
16Mick Lamb72 (23 shared climbs)46 (6 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.1 (3 climbs ≥ 90 s)33 (2/6 circling bouts led to climbs)44 (mean on-course altitude 27% of band)0.13 (39 circles, 100% left)
17Richard Martin60 (19 shared climbs)60 (3 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.5 (2 climbs ≥ 90 s)17 (1/6 circling bouts led to climbs)45 (mean on-course altitude 33% of band)0.18 (101 circles, 66% left)
18Neil Hooke46 (18 shared climbs)17 (4 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.0 (2 climbs ≥ 90 s)14 (1/7 circling bouts led to climbs)19 (mean on-course altitude 2% of band)0.15 (109 circles, 94% left)
19Jay Kubeil87 (5 shared climbs)124 (2 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.7 (1 climb ≥ 90 s)0 (0/3 circling bouts led to climbs)0.12 (23 circles, 96% left)
20Peter Adriaans65 (19 shared climbs)25 (6 climbs ≥ 60 s)0.9 (3 climbs ≥ 90 s)17 (1/6 circling bouts led to climbs)24 (mean on-course altitude 15% of band)0.18 (71 circles, 96% left)
21Scotty Ireland75 (8 shared climbs)74 (3 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.1 (3 climbs ≥ 90 s)83 (5/6 circling bouts led to climbs)22 (mean on-course altitude 18% of band)0.20 (41 circles, 78% left)
22Hossain Tefaili71 (19 shared climbs)2 (2 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (2 climbs ≥ 90 s)13 (1/8 circling bouts led to climbs)29 (mean on-course altitude 8% of band)0.14 (58 circles, 74% left)
23Paul Lawrence49 (20 shared climbs)36 (8 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.1 (5 climbs ≥ 90 s)0.16 (111 circles, 99% left)
24Jason Carman31 (10 shared climbs)104 (11 climbs ≥ 60 s)-0.1 (11 climbs ≥ 90 s)50 (3/6 circling bouts led to climbs)32 (mean on-course altitude 12% of band) (7 circles, 86% left)
25John Harriott63 (16 shared climbs)49 (2 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.5 (2 climbs ≥ 90 s)0.19 (37 circles, 89% left)
26Jason Lannstrom36 (6 shared climbs)70 (6 climbs ≥ 60 s)0.4 (5 climbs ≥ 90 s)33 (1/3 circling bouts led to climbs)-12 (mean on-course altitude 1% of band)0.22 (12 circles, 83% left)
27Adrian Connor75 (11 shared climbs)5 (3 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.6 (1 climb ≥ 90 s)0.15 (33 circles, 100% left)
28James Atkinson42 (4 shared climbs)0.12 (16 circles, 88% left)
29Bruce Atkinson (2 circles, 100% left)
30Pete Bolton65 (12 shared climbs)17 (3 climbs ≥ 60 s)0.9 (2 climbs ≥ 90 s)0.14 (34 circles, 100% left)
31Marcus De Vecchi54 (30 shared climbs)14 (7 climbs ≥ 60 s)0.9 (3 climbs ≥ 90 s)-15 (mean on-course altitude -3% of band)0.12 (209 circles, 99% left)
32Ward Gunn62 (11 shared climbs)5 (4 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.1 (2 climbs ≥ 90 s)0.17 (37 circles, 100% left)
33Keith Lavers40 (4 shared climbs) (4 circles, 100% left)
34Tushar Pokle (7 circles, 100% left)

Share of lift turned in that was kept as a climb

Measured in percent · no expected direction

How selective the pilot is about the lift they stop for. Each period of circling of 30 s or more after the start counts as lift that the pilot sampled. If the period overlaps a detected thermal, the pilot kept that lift. If it does not, they turned a few circles and left it. The value is the percentage kept. A low value means they are selective. A high value means they keep almost every climb they turn in. There is no expected direction: selection wins on a strong day and wastes time on a weak one.

Acceptance by hour

HourMedian accepted (%)pilots
502
5020
5514
5010
253
331

Median per-pilot acceptance %, bucketed by the hour (competition time zone).

How round and consistent the circles were

Measured in ratio · lower is better

Whether the pilot flies clean, repeatable circles, or moves around the thermal. We fit each detected circle by least squares. The RMS fit error divided by the fitted radius measures how round the turn was. The value is the median over all of the circles of the pilot. A lower value means smoother and more consistent turns.

Turn direction across the field: 79% left (2499 circles).

best: clear pattern (0.66)

One lane per behaviour, one dot per pilot, placed by percentile within the pilots that behaviour could be measured on — so a dot's position says where a pilot sat, never how spread the field was. Hover a pilot to light them up in every lane at once. Lanes run strongest separator first, the ones that separated nobody last; the table below keeps its usual order. Right is the end the behaviour is expected to be better at — whether it paid on this task is the ranking's question, not this chart's. † No good or bad direction: right is simply the larger value. A lane's count is the pilots it applied to; the rest have no value for it, which is not a score of zero.
#PilotGlideSpdGlideL/DSpeedToFlyWide%Dolphin%
1Hughbert Alexander59.1 (18 glides, 59 min gliding)1.14 (4 legs compared)-2.9 (17 glide→climb pairs)26 (4 legs completed)15 (681 of 4406 m gained outside thermals)
2Steven Crosby57.8 (16 glides, 63 min gliding)1.05 (4 legs compared)-1.0 (15 glide→climb pairs)30 (4 legs completed)20 (721 of 3552 m gained outside thermals)
3Jon Durand55.4 (12 glides, 55 min gliding)0.87 (4 legs compared)5.3 (11 glide→climb pairs)16 (4 legs completed)5 (217 of 4240 m gained outside thermals)
4Michael Smith63.1 (15 glides, 82 min gliding)0.98 (4 legs compared)0.3 (14 glide→climb pairs)27 (4 legs completed)18 (702 of 3820 m gained outside thermals)
5Jason Kath61.6 (21 glides, 66 min gliding)1.10 (3 legs compared)4.9 (20 glide→climb pairs)34 (3 legs completed)16 (561 of 3518 m gained outside thermals)
6Troy Horton47.7 (12 glides, 57 min gliding)0.97 (1 leg compared)0.1 (11 glide→climb pairs)31 (1 leg completed)20 (510 of 2494 m gained outside thermals)
7James Wynd50.4 (6 glides, 36 min gliding)1.03 (1 leg compared)-1.6 (5 glide→climb pairs)5 (1 leg completed)25 (211 of 839 m gained outside thermals)
8Steve Docherty53.6 (2 glides, 18 min gliding)0.99 (1 leg compared)5 (1 leg completed)6 (38 of 682 m gained outside thermals)
9Paul Bissett-Amess50.2 (5 glides, 30 min gliding)1.10 (1 leg compared)-4.5 (4 glide→climb pairs)25 (1 leg completed)27 (148 of 543 m gained outside thermals)
10Neale Halsall57.7 (6 glides, 25 min gliding)0.79 (1 leg compared)-2.2 (5 glide→climb pairs)17 (1 leg completed)16 (180 of 1128 m gained outside thermals)
11Todd Wisewould57.6 (7 glides, 28 min gliding)1.14 (1 leg compared)-1.0 (6 glide→climb pairs)18 (1 leg completed)31 (171 of 558 m gained outside thermals)
12Peter Burkitt54.1 (5 glides, 22 min gliding)0.97 (1 leg compared)4.7 (4 glide→climb pairs)8 (1 leg completed)49 (288 of 594 m gained outside thermals)
13Mitch Butler52.2 (4 glides, 25 min gliding)1.09 (1 leg compared)5 (1 leg completed)63 (322 of 509 m gained outside thermals)
14Dustan Hansen43.0 (12 glides, 39 min gliding)0.61 (1 leg compared)0.6 (11 glide→climb pairs)78 (1 leg completed)39 (729 of 1885 m gained outside thermals)
15Donny Gardner37.5 (8 glides, 43 min gliding)0.74 (1 leg compared)1.8 (7 glide→climb pairs)69 (1 leg completed)11 (167 of 1536 m gained outside thermals)
16Mick Lamb52.8 (4 glides, 16 min gliding)0.95 (1 leg compared)25 (1 leg completed)21 (90 of 434 m gained outside thermals)
17Richard Martin52.3 (4 glides, 16 min gliding)1.02 (1 leg compared)7 (1 leg completed)50 (101 of 203 m gained outside thermals)
18Neil Hooke50.8 (4 glides, 24 min gliding)0.93 (1 leg compared)4 (1 leg completed)71 (250 of 354 m gained outside thermals)
19Jay Kubeil0.75 (1 leg compared)3 (1 leg completed)
20Peter Adriaans52.1 (1 glides, 11 min gliding)1.01 (1 leg compared)6 (1 leg completed)
21Scotty Ireland54.2 (4 glides, 11 min gliding)
22Hossain Tefaili53.4 (5 glides, 20 min gliding)0.1 (4 glide→climb pairs)42 (155 of 368 m gained outside thermals)
23Paul Lawrence
24Jason Carman42.5 (2 glides, 15 min gliding)29 (103 of 350 m gained outside thermals)
25John Harriott
26Jason Lannstrom50.1 (1 glides, 4 min gliding)
27Adrian Connor
28James Atkinson
29Bruce Atkinson
30Pete Bolton
31Marcus De Vecchi48.3 (1 glides, 6 min gliding)
32Ward Gunn
33Keith Lavers
34Tushar Pokle

Glide speed between climbs

Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better

How fast the pilot moves down the course when they are on a glide. The value is the duration-weighted mean ground speed over every glide after the start, which is the glide distance divided by the glide time. A higher value means more ground covered in each minute between climbs.

Field glide speed: median 52.6 km/h · p90 58.7 km/h (24 pilots)

best: some pattern (0.46)

best: could be chance (0.11)

best: could be chance (0.59)

Footnotes

1 pilot in the standings but not in this analysis

  • Randall Clotworthyscored from a manual flight report — no tracklog to analyse

The correlations are measured against the published ranks, and those ranks include these pilots. Their behaviour cannot be measured without a tracklog.

How the field is compared

Everything that compares pilots to each other uses one shared clock. That includes gaggles, shared thermals, and the position of each pilot at the same moment. GlideComp resamples every track onto a common 10-second grid. Two pilots are therefore always compared at the same instant, whatever rate their instruments logged at.

Metric glossary

How GlideComp measures every metric on this page. On screen, the ⓘ beside a metric opens the same description in place. On paper, this section is the reference for all of them.

Day profile & wind

The day’s wind, hour by hour and leg by leg(“Wind” in tables)
Measured in kilometres per hour · no expected direction

What the air did, read from the field itself. We estimate the wind from the circling of every pilot. The first method is the drift of the circle centre, and the second method, used when the first is not available, is the modulation of the ground speed. We then average the vectors two ways. The table by hour of day shows how the wind increased and changed direction through the day. The table by speed-section leg shows the wind on each part of the course. This metric describes the day, so it has no value for each pilot.

How strong the day’s climbs were, hour by hour(“Climb/hr” in tables)
Measured in metres per second · no expected direction

When the day started, reached its peak, and ended. We group the thermal climbs of all pilots by the hour in which each climb started, labelled in the time zone of the competition. The median and the 90th-percentile average climb rate for each hour show how the lift developed. This metric describes the day, so it has no value for each pilot.

Share of the flight spent in air that wasn’t sinking(“NonSink%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

How much of the flight was in air worth being in. The value is the share of the airborne time of a pilot, on the shared grid, with a 30 s-smoothed vario at or above −0.5 m/s. The time they flew, the line they steered and the way the flight ended all feed this value. It is therefore a reading of the day as much as of the pilot. There is no expected direction, and the sign of the correlation is the finding. The timing table compares the window of the day’s best climbs against the time when the field launched.

Climbing

Climbing faster than the pilots sharing the thermal(“Out-climb” in tables)
Measured in percent · higher is better

When this pilot and other pilots were in the SAME thermal, who climbed faster? In every thermal that two pilots or more used, we rank each use by its average climb rate. The percentile of a use is the share of uses that were strictly slower. The value is the duration-weighted mean percentile over the shared climbs of the pilot. 50% is exactly average. 80% means they climbed faster than four in five of the pilots they shared lift with. The shared thermal is what separates centring skill from thermal selection: a pilot who only found better air gets no higher value here.

Time to core thermals(“Core s” in tables)
Measured in seconds · lower is better

How long the pilot takes to get into the best lift after they arrive in a thermal. For each thermal of 60 s or more, we measure the seconds from the entry until the 30 s rolling climb rate first reaches 90% of its peak in that thermal. The value is the median across the thermals of the pilot. Every second here is a second spent climbing slower than the thermal can carry them.

Climb rate at thermal exit(“LeaveRate” in tables)
Measured in metres per second · no expected direction

The median climb rate that the pilot left thermals at. For each thermal of 90 s or more, we take the climb rate over its final 30 s. A high value means they leave lift that still works. A low value means they stay in a climb until nothing is left. This is an absolute rate, so read it against the day: compare it with the median climb in "How strong the day’s climbs were". A pilot who leaves at 1.5 m/s leaves a good climb on a 1 m/s day, and takes the worst lift available on a 4 m/s day. There is no expected direction. The sign of the correlation says which behaviour paid on this task.

Share of lift turned in that was kept as a climb(“Kept%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

How selective the pilot is about the lift they stop for. Each period of circling of 30 s or more after the start counts as lift that the pilot sampled. If the period overlaps a detected thermal, the pilot kept that lift. If it does not, they turned a few circles and left it. The value is the percentage kept. A low value means they are selective. A high value means they keep almost every climb they turn in. There is no expected direction: selection wins on a strong day and wastes time on a weak one.

How much of the thermal the pilot climbed before leaving it(“TopOut%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Does the pilot climb to the top of every thermal, or leave with lift still above them? We take the altitude where they left each thermal after the start, as a percentage of the day’s working band. 0% is the floor of the field and 100% is its ceiling. The value is the median. There is no expected direction: a climb to the top buys height in reserve, and an early departure buys time.

How round and consistent the circles were(“Round” in tables)
Measured in ratio · lower is better

Whether the pilot flies clean, repeatable circles, or moves around the thermal. We fit each detected circle by least squares. The RMS fit error divided by the fitted radius measures how round the turn was. The value is the median over all of the circles of the pilot. A lower value means smoother and more consistent turns.

Gliding

Glide speed between climbs(“GlideSpd” in tables)
Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better

How fast the pilot moves down the course when they are on a glide. The value is the duration-weighted mean ground speed over every glide after the start, which is the glide distance divided by the glide time. A higher value means more ground covered in each minute between climbs.

Glide L/D against the field median(“GlideL/D” in tables)
Measured in ratio · higher is better

Whether the pilot found better air on glide than the other pilots on the same leg. For each completed speed-section leg, we take the pilot's glide-phase L/D. That is the path distance divided by the net altitude lost during the glides, and we skip a leg that loses less than 100 m. We divide it by the median L/D of the field on that same leg, and then average over the legs. 1.10 means the pilot glided 10% further for each metre lost than the usual pilot on those legs.

Gliding faster when the next climb is stronger(“SpeedToFly” in tables)
Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better

Speed to fly: the pilot flies faster when a good climb is in front of them, and slower when it is not. We pair each glide after the start with the climb rate of the next thermal that starts within 5 minutes. The value is the mean glide speed before climbs stronger than the median, minus the mean glide speed before weaker climbs. +8 km/h means the pilot flew 8 km/h faster into the good climbs. This is a PROXY, and not true speed to fly, because there is no glider polar data.

Gliding wide of the optimal course line(“Wide%” in tables)
Measured in percent · lower is better

How much further the pilot flew on glide than the optimised course line needed. 0% is a flight exactly along the line, and 12% is a glide 12% further than necessary. On each completed speed-section leg, we compare the pilot's route with the optimised distance of the leg, weighted by that optimised distance. Only the glides are measured at their full path length. Circling and searching contribute their entry-to-exit displacement instead. A climb or a search for lift therefore never reads as a wide line, because a pilot chooses a line only on glide. 0% is a real value that a pilot can reach: a pilot who flies the line of the optimiser scores exactly zero.

Share of the height gain made outside thermals(“Dolphin%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Dolphin flying: how much of the height that the pilot gained came outside of circling. The value is the share of the altitude gain after the start, smoothed over 10 s, that the pilot made outside a detected thermal. There is no expected direction. The sign of the correlation shows whether dolphin flying paid on this day.

Decision-making

How low the pilot gets between climbs(“Floor%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

How low the pilot goes before the next climb. A high value is a race with height in reserve, and a low value is a flight that goes down near the ground. We take each pair of climbs that the pilot made after the start, and we find the lowest point between them. We keep only the gaps that go down 100 m or more, because a top-up between two climbs is not a descent. We do not count a sled run or the glide to goal, because the pilot made no climb after them. The value is the median of those low points, as a percentage of the day's working band. 0% is where the lowest tenth of the field's climbs started, and 100% is where the highest tenth stopped. Thus a negative value shows that the pilot went lower than almost all of the field. The pilot must have two or more of these descents. There is no expected direction. The sign of the correlation says whether height in reserve pays.

Low saves dug out from the bottom of the band(“LowSaves” in tables)
Measured in count · no expected direction

How many times the pilot got low and climbed out again. We count the climbs after the start that the pilot entered below 15% of the working band, and that then gained 300 m or more. Those are true low saves. Zero is a real value, and not a missing one: it means the pilot never got that low. There is no expected direction. The sign of the correlation says whether a climb-out or a flight that stays high pays.

Distance covered between climbs(“km/climb” in tables)
Measured in kilometres · higher is better

How far the pilot gets down the course before they must stop and circle again. This is the direct reading of how often they stop. The value is the scored flown distance divided by the number of thermals taken after the start, so 3 km means three kilometres of course for each climb. The pilot must fly 20 km or more. The note of each pilot adds their mean climb percentile inside shared thermals, so you can read the number of stops together with the climb strength. Long legs between weak climbs is a different day from long legs between strong ones.

Share of race time spent hunting for the next climb(“Search%” in tables)
Measured in percent · lower is better

Time that goes into neither a climb nor progress down the course. This is the time spent to find lift, to stay up, and to decide what to do next. The value is the share of the speed-section time, from the start to ESS or to the landing, in which the pilot neither climbed in a thermal nor glided with real net speed. A lower value means less time lost between climbs.

Gaggle

Time spent flying with a gaggle(“InGaggle%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Whether the pilot raced with other pilots or alone. The value is the share of their flying time after the start inside a detected gaggle, that is, clustered with one other racing pilot or more on the shared time grid. There is no expected direction. A gaggle increases the power to search for lift, but it also holds a pilot to its own speed. The sign of the correlation says which of the two occurred here.

Climbs joined on another pilot's marker(“Marked%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

How much of the lift of the pilot another pilot found first. The value is the share of their climbs after the start where another pilot was already established in the same thermal when they arrived. Established means 30 s or more into the climb, and still climbing. A high value means they mostly climb on the markers of other pilots. A low value means they find their own air. There is no expected direction. A marker is free information, but it puts a pilot where the last climb was, and not where the next one is.

How often leaving the gaggle paid off(“LeaveWin%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

When a pilot leaves a gaggle that continues to fly, did the departure pay off? We compare the arrival of the pilot who left at the next turnpoint against the median arrival of the pilots who stayed. A win rate of more than 50% means their departures beat the gaggle. A pilot counts as a pilot who stayed only if they were still in the gaggle after the split, and reached that turnpoint after it.

Race craft

How long after the gate opened the pilot started(“StartDly” in tables)
Measured in seconds · lower is better

Every second between the opening of the gate and the crossing of the start line is a second lost for nothing. The value is the seconds from the start gate taken to the scored SSS crossing. On an elapsed-time task, the pilot’s own crossing is the reference, so the delay is 0 by definition. The start table adds the crossing altitude, and the distance behind the leading pilot who had already started.

Race time lost against the fastest pilots, leg by leg(“TimeLost” in tables)
Measured in seconds · lower is better

For each completed speed-section leg, we compare the leg time of the pilot with the mean of the top 10 pilots by rank who completed that leg. Only the losses count, and we add them together. The sum of the leg times is the race time, and the rank defines the reference, so this metric follows the result by construction. Read the waterfall table, which shows every leg against the task winner, for the diagnosis. Do not read the correlation as a finding.

Race time behind the leader at ESS(“Behind” in tables)
Measured in minutes · lower is better

At each speed-section turnpoint, we compare the elapsed race time of the pilot, which is the reaching time minus their own start, with the fastest pilot to that turnpoint. The value is the minutes behind at ESS. It follows the final rank almost exactly, because this metric is the sanity check of the evaluation.

Arriving at ESS with height to spare(“Spare m” in tables)
Measured in metres · lower is better

Height still available at ESS that the pilot no longer needed. That altitude was available for more speed, and the pilot did not use it. The value is the altitude at ESS minus the altitude needed to glide to goal at the standard glide ratio of the sport, which is 5.0 for HG and 4.0 for PG (S7F §12.3.6). A large positive margin means the pilot arrived too high. A margin near zero means they flew the final glide with little height to spare.

Final glide committed to when leaving the last climb(“FinalGl” in tables)
Measured in ratio · no expected direction

How optimistic the pilot was about their final glide. A pilot wins or loses a task by the height at which they leave the last climb. At the last climb of the pilot before ESS, or before the landing, we divide the distance to goal by their height above goal. That is the glide ratio they committed to. 8 means they left and needed 8:1 to make goal. The value counts only when that climb ended within 1.5 times the distance of the final leg from goal. There is no expected direction: a marginal glide wins if it connects, and loses if it does not.